The ‘infection fatality rate’ of any pandemic is usually estimated after a pandemic has passed. Johan Geisecke, former health official for Sweden, estimated in April 2020 that C19 ‘would be approximately two times a bad flu year’. A bad flu year is approximately 0.05% to 0.1% IFR, and C19 as of a few months ago was declared to be at a median level of 0.1 to 0.2% (with a range), making it approximately two times a bad flu as Geisecke predicted.
The infection fatality rate (IFR) is still in flux (pandemic still ongoing) and usually has its final estimate years after the virus goes endemic. The initial case fatality rate (CFR) was flooding the media early on as 3%, and this helped drive the fear factor early on. Since then, the IFR based on many samples had settled at a range of 0% to 1%, median value approximately 0.15%
- Fatality rate (IFR). Initially it was all over news that fatality rate is 3% (compared to a ‘bad’ seasonal influenza at 0.1% – even this figure is debatable – could be as low as 0.02% for mild season). The Imperial College models (Neil Fergusson) were used at IFR = 1% by almost all the world to initially use the ‘precautionary principle’ to lockdown like China did (except Sweden, whom Fergusson predicted would suffer 40,000-90,000 deaths yet have had 7700 so far).
- The WHO and CDC have now accepted (as of Oct 2020) and published that C19 median IFR is 0.15%, range of 0 to 1.5%. This peer-reviewed and accepted paper took 3 revisions and 7 months of reviews: ID: BLT.20.265892 pdf, 878kb (who.int)
- From the U.K, in October 2021, Opposition member Steven Baker asked what the estimate for IFR was, answer 0.096%:
- The WHO stated in Oct.2020, that after 10 months of spread (or 1 year given China had cases in August), the estimation of infections was 10% of the world, or 780 million people. Deaths at that time were 1.1million. Yields IFR = 0.14%. Keep in mind the WORLDOMETERS/John Hopkins/FT and other trackers only show ‘Cases’. In Oct. Those were around 35 million, which is why people assume/report ‘fatality ratio’ = 1.1/35 = 3%. (This is the ‘CFR vs IFR’ mixup).
- Source: WHO Estimates Coronavirus Infected 10% Of World’s Population (forbes.com)
- The IFR is much more age-specific than influenza. That is, from age 0 to 50, C19 IFR is lower than influenza, and above 60 years, it is higher. The CDC updated its IFR estimates to the following age-ranges:
0-19 years: 0.003%
20-49 years: 0.02%
50-69 years: 0.5%
70+ years: 5.4%
Source: COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC)
- The Economist Sept. 15, 2020 summarized dozens of seroprevalance studies to arrive at an estimated infection count of 630 million. Deaths then were just under 1 million. IFR = 0.15%
Source: The Economist, Sept. 15, 2020:
- Comparisons to previous pandemics. The 1918 pandemic IFR was 3%. Both 1958 and 1968 pandemics were 0.1 to 0.2% (close to C19). Both killed up to 4 million at a time when world population was half what it is today. Note the table below shows ‘CFR’ but it is actually IFR (estimated deaths divided by estimated infections).
Sources: Revisiting the 1957 and 1968 influenza pandemics – The Lancet
Influenza pandemic – Wikipedia
Log plot of IFR vs. age
COVID-19 (https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/23/coronavirus-covid-deaths-us-age-race-14863) and influenza (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html).
Co-morbidities. All major countries’ data shows that the majority of deaths is strongly correlated to morbidities. Alberta health stats below are one such example. In the USA, deaths ‘with’ C19 had on average 3 co-morbidities.
Looking at all-cause mortality for Ontario as an example. Somehow neoplasms, influenza+pneumonia dipped down for 2020 and deaths ‘with C19’ took their place. The peaks for C19 were similar to the bad flu year for 2017/2018, when adjusted for overall population growth trend (up 1% per year).
B.C., end of 2021 vs 2020:
BCCDC COVID-19 Epidemiology App (shinyapps.io)
And for BC all-cause. Note approximately 0.75% of population dies each year, 2020-2021 was statistically the same as any severe influenza year. For context, in the two years March 2020-March 2022, (0.75% * 5.1million * 2) = 77,000 deaths from all causes, versus approximately 2300 death ‘with a positive PCR C19 test’. We used to have something called ‘proportional response’ based on ALL health issues.
